Via Metsblog, over at Blogging Mets, Marc Berman looks at the contracts given out by the Mets since 1998 and concludes "Of the 22 contracts of three years or more the Mets have handed out since 1998, I have judged 12 bad, seven good, and three incomplete. That is not a good track record." Agreed.
But I think we often overstate how badly the contracts given to guys like Luis Castillo or Oliver Perez (or for that matter even a larger deal like Pedro Martinez) affects a team with a massive payroll like the Mets. For a counterpoint to the failures of the Mets, take the Boston Red Sox and their GM, Theo Epstein. Since 2003 the team has made the playoffs six times in eight years, and won two World Series. They've also given out the following truly awful contracts:
Edgar Renteria: 40 years, $40m
Matt Clement: 3 years, $25.8m
Julio Lugo: 4 years, $36m
Mike Lowell: 3 years, $37.5m
Daisuke Matsuzaka, 6 years: $52m (plus $51.1 posting fee)
Josh Beckett: 4 years, $68m
John Lackey: 5 years, $85.2m
The first four are bad, bad contracts. The next few stand a good chance to be bad, bad contracts. Renteria gave Boston one middling year, then was dealt for someone named Andy Marte. Clement gave the Sox a whopping 44 starts of 5.09 ERA starting pitching. Lugo stunk for a while, then was traded for Chris Duncan. Lowell contributed 4.1 WAR over his three-year deal (Luis Castillo contributed 2.8 over his 3 years with the Mets, making $13m less, for a point of comparison). I don't think Dice-K has been quite as bad as some people make him out to be, but I doubt he'll end up being worth half of what Boston paid (Fangraphs says he was worth $43.3m over the first four years of his career). Theoretically Lackey could end up living up to his contract, but early returns are not good. And as for Beckett, he's off to a great start this season, but he's signed through age 34 and stunk in 2010. Not great odds.
But Epstein and the Red Sox overcame these atrocious contracts by giving smart deals to guys like J.D. Drew (and probably Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, too), making smart trades for Curt Schilling and Beckett, stealing David Ortiz from Minnesota, inheriting Manny Ramirez and Pedro Martinez, and bringing Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Bucholz and Jonathan Papelbon (among others) through the farm system.
None of this, is to excuse a bunch of bad contracts given by the loathsome Steve Phillips, the comically incompetent Jim Duquette or Omar Minaya. But it is to point out that simplifying the Mets failures over the past decade or so by saying "they gave out a bunch of bad contracts," (which is not what Berman is doing, by the way, but is a common belief) is oversimpilyfing. There were bad trades. There was a farm system didn't advance many good players. There was a failure to sign the right players to small contracts. There was a lot of bad luck and injuries. And yes, there were bad contracts. But a well-run team. like the Boston Red Sox under Theo Epstein, with a big payroll can easily overcome a few, or more, of those contracts and have a lot more success than the Mets have had, and maybe even win a World Series or two.
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